Employment Levels In Poole
Recent Trends and Emerging Issue
Although nationally growth is slowing down, in Poole output growth has been evident in both manufacturing (despite employment loss) and service sectors.
It is expected that Poole will avoid experiencing the same degree of economic slow down due to its strong presence of expanding sectors companies including business and financial services and high-tech knowledge based engineering firms. In fact, Poole is still expected to grow at a slightly faster rate than the national.
The Labour Market
Since 1994 Poole has experienced significant employment growth with around 21,000 more people employed in Poole. Today it is estimated that there are 73,000 people working in Poole. In fact, overall, Poole is operating at near full employment level with unemployment at approximately 0.9% (April ’04).
More people have been drawn into the labour market, especially women and older males. In the first quarter of 2003, 86% of Poole’s working age population were economically active compared to 81.4% a year earlier. This is significantly above the national average of 74.9%.
Unemployment
Unemployment is concentrated among certain groups that are disadvantaged in some way in the labour market, either due to age, lack of skills or length of time out of work. 4.7% (April 2003) of the unemployed population in Poole are aged 25 and under and unemployed for over 1 year (compared to 14.1% for England).
Unemployment is also concentrated in a few wards (eg. Hamworthy [2.2%] and Harbour [2.0%] April 2003, resident based) and is associated with wider problems of social exclusion, deprivation and disengagement from the labour market. A note of caution should be made however, with unemployment figures.
The real level of unemployment (those diverted onto other benefits or out of the benefit system altogether) is assumed to be up to four times higher than this according to research by Stephen Fothergill et al Sheffield Hallam University 2003. This would present Hamworthy with a "real unemployment" rate of around 9.0% and Harbour 9.2%. This equates to 1 in 10 residents being out of work in these areas (excludes pensioners).
The Local Economy Forecasting Model 2002, produced by Cambridge Econometrics, has been used to estimate the future demand for labour. The findings suggest that between 2001 and 2010 there will be overall employment growth of about 11,300 jobs for Poole and Bournemouth. This is an overall change of 5.5% which is 0.6% change per year. The higher skilled occupations will be in greatest demand with the proportion of those with high skills increasing to 41% by the year 2010 a 6% increase from 35% in 1993.
Although nationally growth is slowing down, in Poole output growth has been evident in both manufacturing (despite employment loss) and service sectors. It is expected that Poole will avoid experiencing the same degree of economic slow down due to its strong presence of expanding sectors companies including business and financial services and high-tech knowledge based engineering firms. In fact, Poole is still expected to grow at a slightly faster rate than the national economy.
Drivers of Employment Growth
The main drivers of growth in Poole are the service sectors, namely banking and finance and public administration: 45% of the workforce are employed in these sectors (see chart below). Distribution, hotels and restaurants are the largest employer in Poole yet this sector has shown signs of employment loss since 1999. However, these sectors have shown a 3.9% increase in output on a year earlier. Most of this has come from the retail and wholesale trade as output was still 0.3% lower than a year earlier for hotels and catering, probably reflecting the influence of global economic problems on the overseas business travel and tourism sector.
Manufacturing has remained in recession through the first part of 2002 for England and has shown some employment loss of around 1.3% in Poole, compared to a 1% loss for England. Energy and water output grew by 1.8% on a year earlier.
Employment in this sector in Poole has remained the same at 1% since 2000. Agriculture and fishing have shown no change in the number employed in this sector in Poole. However, earnings in this sector for the South West is 7.6% higher than the rest of the country. Computer related activities are included in the chart below, as it is becoming an increasingly significant growth sector for the UK and Poole.
More than 50% of firms with vacancies experience recruitment difficulties. Firms experiencing skill shortages and recruitment difficulties are looking to a wider labour market to recruit. As a result, there is net in-migration, especially those of working age.
The same model has been used to estimate the labour supply from 1996 to 2016. The labour force in Poole is predicted to grow by 11.3%, or 0.5% per annum to 2016. This equates to 7,200 more economically active people in Poole and is expected to be created through increased net in-migration.
These forecasts suggest that Poole will not have enough people to fill the jobs as the projected increase in the economically active will not meet the forecast increase in labour demand. There could be a shortfall of –3,343 economically active people by the year 2016. Elsewhere in Dorset, there is expected to be a surplus of labour supply over labour demand.
Average Earnings
Average earnings in Poole are comparable to the national average; £24,973 per year in Poole compared with £25,079 per year nationally. However the differential between the highest 10% and lowest 10% is greater locally and has increased over time. In 2002, 10% of the population earned over £888.20 a week and 10% earned less than £207.80 a difference of £681. A year earlier the difference was £563, suggesting that the gap between the high and low earners is increasing.
Employment Land
Between 1994 and 2002 some 21.28 hectares of land have been developed. This equates to an average of 2.6 ha of employment land each year. The assessment of employment land availability is shown below. The categories used are:
- Immediate: comprising land assessed capable of development without any delay.
- Short term: land which could be developed, pending a possible short delay within a 12 month period.
- Medium term: land which could be developed within 1 to 4 years.
- Long term: land which is unlikely to developed within the next 4 years.
- For owner: attempts to assess how much land is being retained by companies for their own future expansion. This land is included within the availability figures.
It is evident that Poole has experienced high takeup of employment land over the Structure Plan period relative to its respective allocation and other neighbouring authorities.
Implications
- Continued economic prosperity / potential may be constrained by: skill shortages and recruitment difficulties; lower investment levels; lower levels of productivity; lack of suitable land and property; increased house prices with lagging wage inflation; and inmigration of workers from relatively depressed labour markets taking advantage of employment opportunities. Managing productivity, competitiveness and industrial dynamics are key issues for Poole.
- Although employment growth may be levelling off nationally, local opportunities still remain. Businesses do, however, continue to face recruitment problems particularly in craft trades.
- Poole’s two-tier economy (mixture of high value added, high wages sectors and low value added, low waged sectors) could dampen overall performance and prosperity. However, the diversity could, and has, helped protect Poole from shocks and recessionary pressures.
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